We may be only eight games into the new Premier League season, but evidence thus far and recent top-flight history suggests Chelsea won’t retain the title this term. No club has successfully defended the English crown since Manchester United in 2009, a run that now spans eight years, and Chelsea have already lost three times this season, falling nine points behind pace-setters Manchester City.
Many tipped the Blues and the two Manchester giants to be in a league of their own this year, but it seems Chelsea can hope at best to be the relegation candidates if a mini-division does soon form at the table’s summit.
After the shock 2-1 defeat to rock-bottom Crystal Palace on Saturday which saw N’Golo Kante and Alvaro Morata absent through injury and Victor Moses limp off with the same hamstring problem, the finger has inevitably been pointed towards the Blues’ failure to bring in ample depth during the summer. While that’s clearly influenced a turbulent start to the season though, there’s a bigger force at work than simply the number of players added to Antonio Conte’s roster – after replacing experience with promise, Chelsea are in transition.
The numbers speak for themselves, as do the names of those Chelsea decided to part with – John Terry, Nemanja Matic and Diego Costa, essentially swapped for three younger alternatives in Antonio Rudiger, Tiemoue Bakayoko and Alvaro Morata.
In numerical terms, that translates to 126 international caps, 702 Premier League appearances and 26 trophies leaving the club, and just 37, none and eight respectively coming back in. Quite a drastic difference, especially for a club hoping to defend the title, and especially considering they all come down the spine of the team – albeit Terry lost his starting role last season.
Bearing that in mind, it’s almost inevitable Chelsea have been inconsistent this season. The greatest leader in the club’s history has departed, followed by their most dependable midfielder and a centre-forward who has fired his clubs to three league titles in the last four years. In truth, Chelsea are coping far better the last time they lost significant figures in the dressing room – after Didier Drogba and Petr Cech left in summer 2015, their title defence spectacularly imploded – but it still makes holding onto the English crown a rather ambitious ask.
In theory, though, it was still the right decision to change up during the summer. After eight years of unsuccessful title defences, Chelsea couldn’t simply repeat the failings of preceding incumbents by only improving the fringes of the squad and refusing to change the dynamics of the starting XI. On top of that, it was clear Manchester City and Manchester United would invest significantly to improve their teams as well, and perhaps most importantly of all, Conte never really had the chance to create his own squad during his first summer at Stamford Bridge.
He managed to change the system by bringing in David Luiz and Marcos Alonso, but the squad on the most-part was what Jose Mourinho had left behind. Rudiger, Bakayoko and Morata are more fluid, more mobile and more modern players, chosen by Conte specifically for their playing styles and personalities.
That process is essential if Chelsea are to become a true Conte side, even if it does come at the expense of successfully defending the title this year, and for all the criticism of the club’s failure to nurture young players, the Blues have added three to their first team that are on the cusp of reaching their peak years.
And yet, you have to wonder whether Chelsea’s transition has come at the wrong time, and whether it perhaps should have been staggered over two or three summers rather than just one. First and foremost, despite the talk of these signings making the Blues a genuine Conte team, there’s no guarantee the Italian will be in charge long enough to reap the true rewards of the change in personnel.
In the last eight years, Sir Alex Ferguson was the only manager to survive a failed title defence; even he decided to retire in 2013 rather than give it another attempt and even Leicester City sacked Claudio Ranieri midway through 2016/17; and Chelsea aren’t exactly known for patience and long-term rationalism. At the same time, Conte doesn’t seem particularly content at Stamford Bridge. Rumours of a return to Italy always rekindle after disappointing results and he was clearly at loggerheads with his paymasters during the summer.
Likewise, Chelsea’s temporary move to Wembley is just around the corner, and we’re already seeing the pejorative effect the national stadium can have on a club side. The neutrality, unfamiliarity and sheer size of the ground has made it difficult for Tottenham this season, who managed their first Premier League win there only last weekend against relegation-threatened Bournemouth in a scrappy 1-0, and Chelsea face similar difficulties – namely, moving to such a vast arena from one, much like White Hart Lane, which is famed for the atmospheres created by the proximity between the stands and the pitch.
Chelsea will feel they’re better equipped to handle the challenges Wembley poses. They historically fare much better at Wembley than Spurs and therefore have much fonder memories there, their players are more experienced in playing at continental stadiums of similar style, and the Blues have the advantage of being able to learn from Tottenham’s mistakes.
But if Chelsea fall short this season and if that leads to Conte parting company, voluntarily or not, the Blues will enter their four years at Wembley on a chaotic low. Chelsea always seem to thrive just when the club appears to fall into crisis mode, but it remains to be seen in Rudiger, Bakayoko and Morata have the temperament to deal with those new pressures. In any case, if the transitions that will eventually see them become key members of the first team require longer than this season, they’ll surely be disrupted by the move.
Currently, however, that’s speculation and hypothesising. All we know is that Chelsea are inevitably struggling to fill the void of three hugely experienced players instantaneously and with Manchester City and Manchester United – who, in comparison, both signed players from other Premier League clubs during the summer – starting the season so strongly, the west Londoners probably won’t break the division’s title-defence hoodoo.
Whether that’s justified in the long-term by Chelsea becoming stronger and more successful with Morata, Bakayoko and Rudiger down the spine of the team remains to be seen.